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Demand and price forecasting for electric and gas utilities
Nostradamus is a neural network, short-term demand and price forecasting system, designed for electric and gas utilities, system operators and power pools, cooperatives, energy marketers, and gas pipelines.
With Ventyx Nostradamus, organizations can improve forecast accuracy by tracking forecasts with actual values as well as update new information as it becomes available. The neural network algorithm learns the pattern of load or price changes from numerous weather variables as well as day of week, time of year, and holidays by learning from historical data.
expand Key Capabilities
- Neural Network Technology – which recognizes relationships and applies this knowledge to produce accurate daily and hourly demand and price forecasts.
- Flexible Data Integration – for creating a customized model set-up, forecast execution, and results processing.
- Profile Manager – for creating, adjusting and maintaining similar models to allow for easier use.
- Sensitivity Analysis & Comprehensive Statistics – to track changes in data for a better understanding of relevant inputs and more accurate capture of forecast peaks and valleys.
- Rules-based Error Handling – to identify, cleanse, and manage data in a way that can still produce accurate forecasts.
- Customized Reports/Graphs – which analyze specific data areas and present them in Excel, Access, and/or HTML using the Ventyx Report Agent.
- Load Duration with Corresponding Forecast – for ensuring that the newly constructed model properly meets the peaks and valleys of the respective load patterns.
- Actual vs. Forecast – plotted over time gives the finest detail needed to clearly isolate specific points in time where the new model is not measuring up.
- Error by Time-Frame – can indicate outlying months, days, or hours, as well as isolate where adjustments need to occur.
- A Scatter Plot – of actual data versus forecasts can depict outer points immediately.
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